LTL Market Outlook: What Shippers Need to Know This Quarter

Capacity Tightening in the Northeast

As we enter Q1 2026, Northeast LTL capacity is tighter than it's been in 18 months. Three regional carriers have reduced terminal hours, and driver availability is down 7% year-over-year. Shippers who rely on single-carrier relationships are seeing transit time creep of 0.5-1.5 days on regional lanes.

Fuel Surcharges Stabilizing

The good news: fuel surcharges have stabilized after the volatility of late 2025. Current surcharge levels are 4-6% below the 2025 peak. Shippers can expect this level to hold through Q2 barring any major disruption.

Rate Environment

Base LTL rates are up 2-3% year-over-year for most national carriers, but the broker market remains competitive. Shippers with carrier network access are finding rates flat to down on many lanes — particularly in the Southeast and Midwest where capacity has improved.

What to Do Now

If you're seeing transit time degradation, the solution is carrier diversification — not paying a premium to a single carrier. Make sure your freight program includes at least 3-4 carrier options per lane.